Drones in Ukraine are Revolutionising Warfare: Is India Prepared?
Dedipyaman Shukla
A generational shifts in military technology are few and far between. However, new conflicts can rapidly convey the fact of these shifts, catalysed by years of previous insidious advancements.
In recent years, international attention has been firmly fixed on the border between Ukraine and Russia; where one of the largest military conflicts of the 21st Century is unfolding. While this war has had widespread geo-political ramifications, it also has provided defence establishments with some startling insights into the shape of future military conflicts.
The initial phase of the war was marked by large displays of conventional ground and air power. News cycles were abundant with the exploits and failures of MIG-29 and Sukhoi ‘flanker’ aircraft battling over the skies of Ukraine for air dominance. Conventional air power has remained a key determined of military outcomes in the last century of warfare. Yet the later phase of the conflict has witnessed new trends emerging. Due to resource constraints and large-scale loss of conventional military capabilities on both sides, the on-ground tactics have changed drastically to small unmanned aerial systems. Contemporary news cycles now flush with stories of the deployment of FPV drones. The disproportionate success of these weapon systems is challenging conventional wisdom abilities of air power in modern conflicts.
Before the start of Russia-Ukraine hostilities, offensive aerial drone operations often involved larger remotely piloted aircraft and loiter munitions. Aircraft such as the General Atomics MQ-1 ‘Predator’, and its variants, had become synonymous with these capabilities. The later MQ-9A Reaper drones provides more than 27 hours of endurance and an operational flight ceiling of 50,000 feet. The aircraft can also carry a suite of advanced sensors and weapons thanks to its 1746 kilogram payload capacity. These drones proved to be extremely effective in previous low-intensity conflicts where first-world nations were able to provide air-control to enable Predators and Reapers to operate in an unchallenged air environment.
How FPV Drones Are Changing the Battlefield
First-person view (FPV) drones offer an entirely different proposition of value on the modern battlefield. These drones are essentially a type of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), with a camera attachment designed to remotely transmit video feed to an operator’s display (often mounted within a headset). This provides the operator with a ‘first-person view’ of the battlefield. All the while, the drone operator can relay instructions to the platform remotely from the relative safety of a well-protector bunker away from the immediate frontline.
These cheap civilian origin drones offer several advantages over conventional systems in the new paradigm of warfare. Being fast, easy to operate, highly manoeuvrable, and inexpensive (most under a few thousand dollars) makes these platforms equally attractive to military operators in Russia/Ukraine, as they are to filmmakers and surveyors. FPV drones have proven to be effective in target identification, threat monitoring, and improvised offensive capabilities.
Leading commercial drone makers like DJI advertise 40+ minute cruise times and upto 200 hectares of area survey per flight for commonly used models. These figures may pale in comparison to larger conventional drones, but a key distinction must be appreciated. Cheap FPV drones can be deployed n co-ordination in the hundreds or thousands, with relative ease. Beyond standard high resolution cameras, they also carry multi-spectral and infrared sensors which offer improved visibility in difficult conditions. This can offer the user a detailed picture of the local battlefield which minimizes the ‘fog of war’ at low cost and low risk.
Effective Weapons Delivery
The impressive information gathering capabilities of FPV drones is complemented by their ability to also be useful offensive weapon systems. Multiple instances may be cited of these drones (carrying an explosive load) successfully putting the latest tanks and military vehicles out of commission. In other instances, they have been used to target exposed infantry. Some commentators note the exceptional cost to performance ratio of these drones (costing about USD 400 off the shelf) in damaging million-dollar military assets of the enemy force. The ability to treat these systems as completely expendable provides a great deal of flexibility to on-ground forces in how, and where, they deploy FPV drone resources.
Crucially, these systems have proven to be far too small and low-flying for interception by fighter aircraft, or convention anti-air missiles. Assuming such interception was possible, the cost of such action using expensive conventional capabilities would be questionable. Likewise, this implies that establishment of ‘air superiority’ is irrelevant to FPV drone operations over enemy territory. Such systems are expected to be lost in large numbers.
However, FPV drone are not without their limitations, and cannot be a replacement for all other elements of military power. For example, owing to their limited range and small payload size, they cannot compete with artillery in maintaining a high rate of fire over a large area.
Anti-FPV Drone Solutions
The fightback against FPV Drones has also yielded new tactics and innovations. This has primarily been in the domain of electronic-warfare countermeasures, which attempt to break the channel of communication between the FPV drone and operator. These methods have seen some amount of success in the Ukraine conflict. Large numbers of drones are lost in daily combat over the battlefield. The expendability of individual FPV drones somewhat limits the impact of countermeasures.
Drone innovators on the Ukraine front are attempting to work around these countermeasures with the help of AI technologies. Automated targeting systems based on neural networks are also under development. The ability to operate autonomously would bypass the challenge of electronic jamming altogether, as the real-time link between the operator and FPV drone would no longer be necessary to its operation. AI algorithms could enable target recognition by the drone and set-off the execution of pre-programmed commands such as data collection or co-ordinated attack.
However, some experts remain skeptical of the application of advanced AI systems in FPV drone operations. Cutting-edge AI technology relies on copious amounts of compute capacity. Fitting this capability into a light-weight drone without good connectivity options may be a difficult proposition. Of course, this does not discount the possibility of future iterations of sophisticated AI technology being implemented for FPV drones.
Lessons For India
The degree to which the Indian defence establishment has imbibed the premonitions of FPV drone warfare is unclear. For instance, one commentator notes a significant comfort within the establishment for continuing with conventional ‘manned’ air-platforms, and focus on acquisition of legacy 4.5 generation fighter aircraft, such as the Rafale, which could be rendered obsolete in the context of future conflicts.
The shift from conventional air and ground military platforms to new ‘low-cost, high impact’ platforms like FPV drones, or electronic warfare systems will require more than just a change in military doctrine. For instance, incorporating swarm-style drone tactics is contingent on a strong industrial base for manufacturing large quantities of genuinely expendable FPV drones. Equally important is the capacity for manufacturing electronic equipment to integrate with these platforms. Reliance cannot be placed on the FPV systems of foreign countries in the event of a future conflict.
The impact of drones in Ukraine has also created additional policy and national security questions for India to grapple with. FPV drones offer a low-cost and easy-proliferating capability which can be useful in several civilian contexts. At the same time, they also offer an effective intelligence gathering and asymmetric offensive capability to non-state armed actors, which may lend itself to acts of terrorism. Left unchecked, lethal FPV drones may have extremely negative repercussions in a country’s domestic airspace. Col. Sharma, in a 2022 paper, notes that the challenges of countering unmanned aerial systems differs in peacetime as compared to combat scenarios, and advocates for a ‘whole of government approach’ to the issue. This makes ‘regulatory countermeasures’ a crucial element to mitigating the FPV drone threat. Some of these suggested measures include:
Mandatory remote identification of all commercial off-the-shelf drones sold in India,
Mandatory no-fly firmware installed on commercial off-the-shelf drones for sensitive locations, and
Harsh criminal penalties for drone-related violations.
Some of these measures have been integrated into the Drone Rules, 2021 under the Aircraft Act, 1934, which provide, under Rule 12, for the Central Government to specify, in the future, safety features to be installed on an unmanned aircraft system, which may include:
No Permission – No Takeoff firmware/hardware
Real-time tracking, and
Geofencing capability
This provides the scope for potential application of regulatory ‘drone control’ to all unmanned systems in the country. However, it remains necessary to balance the national and internal security concerns with the tremendous potential for FPV drone application in civilian sectors like healthcare, agriculture, aerial videography, infrastructure maintenance, environmental monitoring etc. In fact, commercial drone utilisation would be a key factor for improving domestic drone production capability and technology for military applications as well. Due recognition should be given to the risk of regulation stifling drone technology development altogether. Hence, policies for drone operation in India will need to be carefully tailored to achieve both commercial and national security requirements.
This post was originally published on the Substack and can be accessed here.